Week 6
Every angle of the NFL. In one place.
Live scores, betting edges, league intel, ML predictions, and advanced metrics
odds: ok (7h)predictions: ok (2h)news: ok (2m)scores: stale (34d)players: ok (15h)
Featured matchupWeek 6 · 2026-10-18
Full breakdown →
HOU 43%57% JAX
Spread
JAX -2.3
Total
42.4
Predicted score
20-22
Game script
Methodical
Week 6 preview · 2026 season
Full week slate →
BAL@CLE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM
BAL 62%38% CLE
Win prob
BAL 62%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-173
Spread
BAL -5.0
Proj score
26-21
Full H2H breakdown →
BUF@LV
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM
BUF 67%33% LV
Win prob
BUF 67%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-276
Spread
BUF -6.8
Proj score
30-23
Full H2H breakdown →
CHI@ATL
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM
CHI 51%49% ATL
Win prob
CHI 51%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-78
Spread
CHI -0.2
Proj score
23-23
Full H2H breakdown →
NO@NYG
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM
NO 48%52% NYG
Win prob
NYG 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+65
Spread
NYG -0.6
Proj score
23-23
Full H2H breakdown →
NYJ@NE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM
NYJ 25%76% NE
Win prob
NE 76%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+244
Spread
NE -10.1
Proj score
17-27
Full H2H breakdown →
WAS@SF
Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM
WAS 23%77% SF
Win prob
SF 77%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+246
Spread
SF -11.1
Proj score
20-32
Full H2H breakdown →
First insight: market setup
CHI @ ATL profiles as a true toss-up.
Model spread: 0.2 · total 46.6
Open quick matchup read →League pulse
Week 6 slate
Full board →
2026-10-18
Pick: KC -10.9blendO/U 43.4
Mkt: KC 79% · KalshiEdge: LAC +6%
80% CI 26-97%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Opponent-adjusted scoring+2.1 pts KC
- Home field+1.8 pts KC
- Market power rating (past closing lines)+1.6 pts KC
Model aloneKC 72% · -8.4
Market (0 bk+K)KC 79%
Blend weight84% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-10-18
Pick: GB -0.9blendO/U 53.5
Mkt: GB 52% · KalshiEdge: GB +7%
80% CI 14-93%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Home field+1.8 pts GB
- Opponent-adjusted scoring+1.0 pts GB
- Wind (total)+0.9 pts under
Model aloneGB 58% · -3.0
Market (0 bk+K)GB 52%
Blend weight84% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-10-18
Pick: PIT -2.2blendO/U 41.0
Mkt: PIT 56% · Kalshi
80% CI 8-87%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Starting QB vs. team's recent QB play+2.9 pts PIT
- Home field+1.8 pts TB
- Wind (total)+0.6 pts under
Model aloneTB 44% · 2.0
Market (0 bk+K)TB 44%
Blend weight84% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-10-18
Pick: CAR -3.4blendO/U 42.3
Mkt: CAR 62% · KalshiEdge: PHI +17%
80% CI 13-92%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Starting QB vs. team's recent QB play+3.7 pts CAR
- Market power rating (past closing lines)+2.2 pts PHI
- Home field+1.8 pts PHI
Model alonePHI 55% · -1.9
Market (0 bk+K)PHI 39%
Blend weight84% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-10-18
Pick: LAR -17.1blendO/U 51.9
Mkt: LAR 88% · KalshiEdge: ARI +10%
80% CI 35-99%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Opponent-adjusted scoring+4.8 pts LAR
- Market power rating (past closing lines)+4.5 pts LAR
- Home field+1.8 pts LAR
Model aloneLAR 78% · -11.9
Market (0 bk+K)LAR 88%
Blend weight84% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-10-18
Pick: IND -9.7blendO/U 46.6
Mkt: IND 75% · Kalshi
80% CI 28-98%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
qb ridge v5- Opponent-adjusted scoring+3.1 pts IND
- Market power rating (past closing lines)+2.7 pts IND
- Home field+1.8 pts IND
Model aloneIND 74% · -9.4
Market (0 bk+K)IND 75%
Blend weight84% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
Today's storylines
- Lead storySource: Patriots likely to activate WR Brown for Sunday's game vs. Jetswww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Steelers lose receiver Wilson on IR, Metcalf comes off injury reportwww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Commanders RB Croskey-Merritt out vs. 49ers with groin injurywww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Eagles' beat-up backfield loses Barkley, Shipley; WR Smith likely to returnwww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Jaguars unlikely to play 3 international home games in 2027www.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Moton among 3 Panthers activated ahead of Eagles gamewww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Bears CB Gordon, oft-injured since $40M deal, activated from PUP listwww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- 📊 Kiper's 2027 Big Board: Ranking the top 25 draft prospectswww.espn.com - NFL · just now
Power rankings
via Elo- A+
- A+
- A
- A
- A
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
- B+
- B
League-wide value bets
Comparing our model to market lines…
New here? Start here
- →This week's matchupsModel projections vs the market for every game
- →Browse all 32 teamsRosters, stats, schedules, and recent form
- →See the odds boardLive lines from major books, in plain English
- →Track your betsLog wagers and see if you beat the closing line
- →Compare two teamsHead-to-head matchup breakdowns
What the numbers mean
- Win probability
- Each team's modeled chance to win — e.g. 65% vs 35%.
- Elo rating
- A power-ranking score; higher is stronger, ~1500 is average.
- Spread
- The favorite's expected margin. “PHI -3.5” = win by 4+ to cover.
- Total (O/U)
- Combined points the market expects both teams to score.
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