Week 3
Every angle of the NFL. In one place.
Live scores, betting edges, league intel, ML predictions, and advanced metrics
odds: warn (10h)predictions: ok (4h)news: ok (5m)scores: stale (9d)players: ok (4h)
Week 1 · 2026 season
Full week slate →
NE@SEA
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM
Final 10 – 13
Win prob
SEA 65%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+130
Spread
SEA -5.2
Proj score
17-23
Full H2H breakdown →
SF@LAR
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM
Final 27 – 7
Win prob
LAR 68%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+85
Spread
LAR -6.9
Proj score
22-29
Full H2H breakdown →
ARI@LAC
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 26 – 14
Win prob
LAC 72%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+210
Spread
LAC -7.9
Proj score
16-24
Full H2H breakdown →
ATL@PIT
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 13 – 20
Win prob
PIT 62%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+78
Spread
PIT -3.9
Proj score
17-21
Full H2H breakdown →
BAL@IND
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 41 – 23
Win prob
IND 51%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-144
Spread
IND -0.4
Proj score
23-23
Full H2H breakdown →
BUF@HOU
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 36 – 31
Win prob
HOU 54%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-26
Spread
HOU -1.2
Proj score
19-20
Full H2H breakdown →
CHI@CAR
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 59 – 37
Win prob
CHI 57%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-160
Spread
CHI -2.2
Proj score
22-20
Full H2H breakdown →
CLE@JAX
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 10 – 34
Win prob
JAX 81%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+217
Spread
JAX -10.6
Proj score
9-19
Full H2H breakdown →
DAL@NYG
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM
Final 20 – 28
Win prob
NYG 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-69
Spread
NYG -0.7
Proj score
25-25
Full H2H breakdown →
GB@MIN
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 22 – 39
Win prob
MIN 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+27
Spread
MIN -0.6
Proj score
19-19
Full H2H breakdown →
MIA@LV
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 13 – 27
Win prob
MIA 57%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-171
Spread
MIA -2.3
Proj score
20-17
Full H2H breakdown →
NO@DET
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 30 – 31
Win prob
DET 73%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+212
Spread
DET -8.1
Proj score
14-22
Full H2H breakdown →
NYJ@TEN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 23 – 10
Win prob
TEN 58%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-24
Spread
TEN -2.5
Proj score
17-19
Full H2H breakdown →
TB@CIN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 27 – 33
Win prob
CIN 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-11
Spread
CIN -0.5
Proj score
22-22
Full H2H breakdown →
WAS@PHI
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 22 – 24
Win prob
PHI 75%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+197
Spread
PHI -9.1
Proj score
16-25
Full H2H breakdown →
DEN@KC
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM
Final 10 – 31
Win prob
DEN 54%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-146
Spread
DEN -1.4
Proj score
20-18
Full H2H breakdown →
Featured matchupWeek 3 · 2026-09-27
Full breakdown →LAR 54%46% DEN
Spread
LAR -1.8
Total
43.8
Predicted score
23-21
Game script
Toss-up
First insight: market setup
MIN @ TB profiles as a true toss-up.
Model spread: -1.1 · total 41.0
Open quick matchup read →League pulse
Week 3 slate
Full board →2026-09-24
Pick: GB -7.3blendO/U 45.5
Mkt: GB -7.5 · O/U 46.5 · 2 books + KalshiEdge: ATL +4%
80% CI 22-96%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+6.01 GB
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.49 ATL
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+1.24 GB
Model aloneGB 69% · -6.8
Market (2 bk+K)GB 73% · -7.5
Blend weight70% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: BUF -4.5blendO/U 46.2
Mkt: BUF -3.0 · O/U 48.5 · 1 book + Kalshi · line → BUFEdge: BUF +3.7
80% CI 22-96%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+6.92 BUF
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.22 LAC
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+1.00 BUF
Model aloneBUF 69% · -6.7
Market (1 bk+K)BUF 71% · -3.0
Blend weight60% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: CAR -0.7blendO/U 35.2
Mkt: CAR -1.5 · O/U 39.5 · 1 book + KalshiEdge: CLE +2.1
80% CI 11-91%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+1.86 CLE
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.46 CAR
- Adjusted defensive edge+1.45 CLE
Model aloneCLE 52% · -0.6
Market (1 bk+K)CLE 43% · 1.5
Blend weight60% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: DET -11.4blendO/U 43.0
Mkt: DET -9.5 · O/U 45.5 · 1 book + KalshiEdge: DET +4.7
80% CI 41-99%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+13.44 DET
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+3.08 DET
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.69 NYJ
Model aloneDET 84% · -14.2
Market (1 bk+K)DET 74% · -9.5
Blend weight60% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: HOU -1.8blendO/U 42.9
Mkt: HOU -1.5 · O/U 45.5 · 2 books + KalshiEdge: HOU +1.1
80% CI 7-86%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap-5.59 HOU
- Adjusted defensive edge-2.19 HOU
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.12 HOU
Model aloneIND 42% · 2.6
Market (2 bk+K)IND 45% · 1.5
Blend weight70% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: JAX -1.6blendO/U 41.3
Mkt: JAX 60% · KalshiEdge: NE +9%
80% CI 10-90%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.00 NE
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)-0.69 NE
- Elo + home-field gap+0.55 JAX
Model aloneJAX 50% · -0.1
Market (0 bk+K)JAX 60%
Blend weight50% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: KC -5.7blendO/U 44.0
Mkt: KC -7.2 · O/U 44.5 · 2 books + Kalshi · line → KCEdge: MIA +5.1
80% CI 8-87%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)-1.37 KC
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.22 KC
- Adjusted defensive edge-1.21 KC
Model aloneMIA 44% · 2.1
Market (2 bk+K)MIA 18% · 7.2
Blend weight70% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-27
Pick: NYG -4.0blendO/U 43.3
Mkt: NYG -3.0 · O/U 45.0 · 2 books + KalshiEdge: NYG +3.5
80% CI 21-96%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+5.89 NYG
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.47 TEN
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+1.16 NYG
Model aloneNYG 69% · -6.5
Market (2 bk+K)NYG 59% · -3.0
Blend weight70% market
low confidence · cal 50%
Today's storylines
- Lead storyMid-Week Waiver Wire Rankings for Week 3 (2026): Fantasy Football Pickups for Jonah Coleman, Emanuel Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, Oronde Gadsden, moreNFL Analysis – RotoBaller · 28m ago
- Derrick Henry says Ravens weren't good enough, but not complaining about lack of carriesprofootballtalk · 2h ago
- Source: Niners signing veteran receiver Cooks to practice squadwww.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
- 👀 Seven things Solak thinks entering NFL Week 3www.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
- Sources: Giants QB Dart out for extended period, possibly rest of seasonwww.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
- Packers lose top O-lineman Bako-Bewele to season-ending surgerywww.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
- Rams' McVay unsure about Nacua's status for Week 3 vs. Broncoswww.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
- Jets sign former Titans starting QB Levis to practice squadwww.espn.com - NFL · 6h ago
Power rankings
via Elo- A+
- A+
- A+
- A+
- A
- A
- A
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
League-wide value bets
Comparing our model to market lines…
New here? Start here
- →This week's matchupsModel projections vs the market for every game
- →Browse all 32 teamsRosters, stats, schedules, and recent form
- →See the odds boardLive lines from major books, in plain English
- →Track your betsLog wagers and see if you beat the closing line
- →Compare two teamsHead-to-head matchup breakdowns
What the numbers mean
- Win probability
- Each team's modeled chance to win — e.g. 65% vs 35%.
- Elo rating
- A power-ranking score; higher is stronger, ~1500 is average.
- Spread
- The favorite's expected margin. “PHI -3.5” = win by 4+ to cover.
- Total (O/U)
- Combined points the market expects both teams to score.
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